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International Paper to Report Q3 Earnings: What to Expect?
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Key Takeaways
International Paper expects Q3 adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations of $780-$830 million.
Lower maintenance costs, pricing gains and 80/20 initiatives may offset high transportation and energy costs.
Packaging Solutions EMEA EBITDA is projected to rise 37% sequentially and North America expected to gain 33%.
International Paper Company (IP - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28, 2026, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IP’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $6.35 billion, indicating a 2% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for International Paper’s earnings has moved down 9% to 30 cents per share. Despite the revision, it suggests an improved performance from the loss of 43 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
IP’s Earnings Surprise History
International Paper’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, while surpassing in one quarter, the average surprise being negative 31.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils for International Paper
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for International Paper this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.
IP’s Earnings ESP: International Paper has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
International Paper’s second-quarter 2026 performance was adversely affected by elevated maintenance outage costs of $205 million, which was the heaviest outage quarter of the year. The company had projected maintenance outage expenses of $79 million for the third quarter. The anticipated decline in maintenance-related costs is likely to have supported sequential earnings growth in the third quarter.
However, higher transportation and fuel costs are expected to have increased input costs sequentially, putting pressure on margins. These headwinds are likely to have been partially offset by favorable volume trends, the realization of previously announced price increases and savings from the company’s 80/20 initiatives. These initiatives aim to simplify operations, eliminate fixed costs and direct resources toward higher-return assets.
International Paper projected third-quarter adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations of $780-$830 million, including an estimated $85 million negative impact from the temporary suspension of operations at its Pine Hill mill for roof repairs. Our model estimates adjusted EBITDA of $810.5 million for the quarter, up from $587 million in the second quarter of 2026. However, the projected figure implies a 6% decline from the year-ago quarter.
Our Projections for International Paper’s Segments in Q3
For the Packaging Solutions North America segment, third-quarter 2026 price and mix are expected to have improved sequentially, reflecting the realization of previously announced price increases. Volumes were projected to decline sequentially, as the benefit of an additional shipping day was likely to have been offset by lower export volumes.
Our model projects Packaging Solutions North America’s net sales at $3.93 billion for the third quarter of 2026, reflecting a 7% increase sequentially and an 0.8% increase year-over-year.
Operations and costs are expected to have been favorable sequentially. Benefits from the Riverdale ramp-up and the contribution from the NORPAC acquisition are expected to have more than offset lower Ixtac insurance proceeds anticipated in the third quarter. Input costs are expected to have been unfavorable due to higher OCC costs and seasonally higher energy costs.
Taking these factors into account, along with the temporary suspension of the Pine Hill mill, management projected third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $555-$585 million for the segment. Our model estimates adjusted EBITDA of $570.8 million, up 33% sequentially but down 14.2% year over year.
For Packaging Solutions EMEA, volumes were expected to increase sequentially, supported by seasonal demand patterns and customer wins. Price and mix were also likely to contribute positively, driven by the continued realization of previously announced paper price increases and the corresponding recovery in box pricing.
Our model projects the segment’s third-quarter net sales at $2.38 billion, indicating a 4% sequential increase and a 3% rise from the year-ago quarter.
Operations and costs are expected to have improved sequentially, supported by progress on the company’s cost-out initiatives and lower distribution costs. Input costs are expected to have been unfavorable as lower OCC costs were largely offset by higher energy costs, including the non-repeat of the energy subsidies received in the second quarter. Based on these factors, management expected third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $230-$250 million for the segment. Our model estimates adjusted EBITDA of $249.7 million, up 37% sequentially and 19.5% from the year-ago quarter.
International Paper Stock's Price Performance
International Paper's shares have lost 31.1% in the past year compared with the industry's 14.1% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks Poised to Beat Estimates
Here are some Basic Materials stocks, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.
Air Products and Chemicals (APD - Free Report) , scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 earnings on Nov. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for Air Products and Chemicals for the third quarter of 2026 is pegged at $3.60 per share, suggesting a 6.2% year-over-year increase. APD has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 2.9%.
Avient (AVNT - Free Report) , scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 earnings on Nov. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +0.58% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for Avient for the third quarter of 2026 is 81 cents per share, indicating a 15.7% year-over-year increase. Avient has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.4%.
Perimeter Solutions, SA (PRM - Free Report) , scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 earnings on Nov. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +3.16% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Perimeter Solutions’ earnings for the third quarter of 2026 is pegged at 95 cents per share, indicating 15.8% growth from the year-ago quarter's reported figure. PRM has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 61.6%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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International Paper to Report Q3 Earnings: What to Expect?
Key Takeaways
International Paper Company (IP - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28, 2026, before the opening bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IP’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $6.35 billion, indicating a 2% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for International Paper’s earnings has moved down 9% to 30 cents per share. Despite the revision, it suggests an improved performance from the loss of 43 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
IP’s Earnings Surprise History
International Paper’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, while surpassing in one quarter, the average surprise being negative 31.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils for International Paper
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for International Paper this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.
IP’s Earnings ESP: International Paper has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of International Paper: The company currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped IP’s Q3 Performance
International Paper’s second-quarter 2026 performance was adversely affected by elevated maintenance outage costs of $205 million, which was the heaviest outage quarter of the year. The company had projected maintenance outage expenses of $79 million for the third quarter. The anticipated decline in maintenance-related costs is likely to have supported sequential earnings growth in the third quarter.
However, higher transportation and fuel costs are expected to have increased input costs sequentially, putting pressure on margins. These headwinds are likely to have been partially offset by favorable volume trends, the realization of previously announced price increases and savings from the company’s 80/20 initiatives. These initiatives aim to simplify operations, eliminate fixed costs and direct resources toward higher-return assets.
International Paper projected third-quarter adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations of $780-$830 million, including an estimated $85 million negative impact from the temporary suspension of operations at its Pine Hill mill for roof repairs. Our model estimates adjusted EBITDA of $810.5 million for the quarter, up from $587 million in the second quarter of 2026. However, the projected figure implies a 6% decline from the year-ago quarter.
Our Projections for International Paper’s Segments in Q3
For the Packaging Solutions North America segment, third-quarter 2026 price and mix are expected to have improved sequentially, reflecting the realization of previously announced price increases. Volumes were projected to decline sequentially, as the benefit of an additional shipping day was likely to have been offset by lower export volumes.
Our model projects Packaging Solutions North America’s net sales at $3.93 billion for the third quarter of 2026, reflecting a 7% increase sequentially and an 0.8% increase year-over-year.
Operations and costs are expected to have been favorable sequentially. Benefits from the Riverdale ramp-up and the contribution from the NORPAC acquisition are expected to have more than offset lower Ixtac insurance proceeds anticipated in the third quarter. Input costs are expected to have been unfavorable due to higher OCC costs and seasonally higher energy costs.
Taking these factors into account, along with the temporary suspension of the Pine Hill mill, management projected third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $555-$585 million for the segment. Our model estimates adjusted EBITDA of $570.8 million, up 33% sequentially but down 14.2% year over year.
For Packaging Solutions EMEA, volumes were expected to increase sequentially, supported by seasonal demand patterns and customer wins. Price and mix were also likely to contribute positively, driven by the continued realization of previously announced paper price increases and the corresponding recovery in box pricing.
Our model projects the segment’s third-quarter net sales at $2.38 billion, indicating a 4% sequential increase and a 3% rise from the year-ago quarter.
Operations and costs are expected to have improved sequentially, supported by progress on the company’s cost-out initiatives and lower distribution costs. Input costs are expected to have been unfavorable as lower OCC costs were largely offset by higher energy costs, including the non-repeat of the energy subsidies received in the second quarter. Based on these factors, management expected third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $230-$250 million for the segment. Our model estimates adjusted EBITDA of $249.7 million, up 37% sequentially and 19.5% from the year-ago quarter.
International Paper Stock's Price Performance
International Paper's shares have lost 31.1% in the past year compared with the industry's 14.1% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks Poised to Beat Estimates
Here are some Basic Materials stocks, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.
Air Products and Chemicals (APD - Free Report) , scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 earnings on Nov. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for Air Products and Chemicals for the third quarter of 2026 is pegged at $3.60 per share, suggesting a 6.2% year-over-year increase. APD has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 2.9%.
Avient (AVNT - Free Report) , scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 earnings on Nov. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +0.58% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for Avient for the third quarter of 2026 is 81 cents per share, indicating a 15.7% year-over-year increase. Avient has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.4%.
Perimeter Solutions, SA (PRM - Free Report) , scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 earnings on Nov. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +3.16% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Perimeter Solutions’ earnings for the third quarter of 2026 is pegged at 95 cents per share, indicating 15.8% growth from the year-ago quarter's reported figure. PRM has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 61.6%.